STB's " I apologize"(was Gawd playing favorites, or is he, Shawn?)

Brian Malcolm errancy@infidels.org
Sat, 12 Jun 1999 09:33:16 -0700 (00929223196, NABBKAPJPFCPHHCMJOKNIEOEPAAA.brianm1@home.com)


Jason:

What does evolution claim?

POOBAH
*Incremental* change over time. As someone suggest, go get a book by Dawkins
to see what evolution claims.

Here's the briefcase lock *analogy* again: If you have a three-wheeled
ten-digit briefcase lock, it will take you around 700 tries (653) on average
to find the combination, assuming you don't keep track of previous tries. If
you are able to figure each wheel separately, however, each wheel will take
7 tries, for a total of 21 tries to guess the lock. If we increase the
number of wheels to 100, it would take 7x10^99 (a huge number approximately
equal to the number of atoms in the universe) tries on average to decipher
the lock, whereas if you could do each wheel separately, it would take
around 700 tries, or the same number as an attempt on a three-lock wheel.

Now this example neither proves nor disproves evolution. The point is,
however, that incremental change is powerful, and is far less improbable
than the straw-man calculations that your articles set forth. Why don't you
e-mail the author, or ask one of your creationist gurus if evolution says
that e coli arises spontaneously, and see what they say.

If you want to discuss this matter further, e-mail me privately.